When you get within 90 days of any national election, overarching voter attitudes and trends are pretty much set in stone, and there is little anyone can do to change them.
There will always be isolated exceptions to that, races in which a candidate who appears to be leading by a significant margin 90 days out will mess up and blow the lead. The most vivid example of this in Texas politics in modern times came in 1990, when Republican gubernatorial candidate Clayton Williams was 18 points ahead of Democrat Ann Richard in a Labor Day poll, then went on to make a series of major gaffes and lose the race to Miz Annie by a hair.
But Claytie's self destruction was the exception in Texas in that election year, a year in which Republicans otherwise made significant gains in state government. Four years later, in 1994, the overall trend continued, with the Republicans winning every statewide elected office but one. That one was the last time a Democrat won a statewide election in this state.
The trends don't look any better for the Democrats in Texas this year. Despite the changing demographic makeup of the electorate and upwards of 1,000 people moving to Texas every day, this remains a firmly GOP state for the foreseeable future. President Obama's fading public approval ratings, along with a sagging national economy are factors that only make the task of winning elections that much harder for Democrat candidates for legislative and statewide offices.
The most likely outcome based on current data appears to be that the Republicans will again win every statewide elected office, will maintain their current significant edge in the state Senate, and will pick up between 6 and 13 additional seats in the House, where they currently hold only a 76-74 margin. If the President's public approval rating continues its long downward trend, the GOP gain in the House will trend to the upper end of that range. Right now, I'll predict that is the most likely result, and the Republicans will increase their margin from 76-74 to 88-62.
You are no doubt hearing reports that the race for governor is competitive and Democrat Bill White has a real shot to win. Don't bet the farm on that. The reality is that he is extremely unlikely to receive more than 42-43% of the vote on Election Day, and lose to Governor Perry by about 7-8% of the vote, with the remaining 5-6% going to the libertarian candidate, whomever that may be. Absent some major, Claytie-esque gaffe by Governor Perry – something he has managed not to commit in more than 25 years in elected office – there's just not much reason for voters in a Republican majority state to turn him out of office in favor of any Democrat.
Nationally, it is now almost a certainty that the Republican Party will regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives. Even very reticent prognosticators like the National Journal's Charlie Cook are now projecting Republican gains of 45-60 seats, with Cook now saying the upper end of that range seems the most likely outcome. The GOP needs to gain 39 seats to be in the majority for the 2011-12 congressional term. Frankly, I think 45-60 is pretty modest, and the possible range at this point is more like 55-70, with the upper end being far more likely than the lower.
In the Senate, the Republicans would have to pick up 10 seats to gain the majority. That does not appear to be in the cards, mainly due to the race for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's seat in Nevada. In that race, the GOP could have nominated a raccoon or a potted plant and defeated Mr. Reid, who is perhaps the supreme nitwit in the history of the U.S. Senate. Instead, the Republicans nominated Sharon Angle, who appears to be almost as goofy as Reid, and fully capable of blowing that race. If the Rs can't win Nevada, they cannot gain the necessary ten seats. As discussed in an earlier column, GOP voters also nominated Rand Paul, the crazy son of the also-crazy Texas Representative Ron Paul, in the senate race in Kentucky. Rand Paul, like Sharon Angle, also seems to be goofy enough to blow what would otherwise have been a certain Republican pick up. My prediction is that either Angle or Paul – but not both – will lose their race, keeping Republican gains just below the necessary ten to gain the majority.
But here's the thing to remember about the Senate: in the 2012 and 2014 elections, 43 Democrats will have to defend their seats, while only 23 Republican seats will be up for grabs. So while the GOP will not likely gain control in that body this coming November, they almost certainly will do so in 2012, with their margin growing larger in 2014.
That's what the trends say, and they're not likely to change in any significant way before November. Bank it.
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